Met Office predicts temperatures will rise as Wales could see Indian summer in late September
September was drier and warmer than normal for the first half of the month and it looks like this theme is set to continue into next week.
Long-term forecasts from the Met Office say it will start to warm up next week and high pressure will start to build from Tuesday.
This weekend will likely be overcast with occasional showers, but high pressure is expected to take over southern UK, including Wales, next week.
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West Wales could see rain on Friday thanks to a band of low pressure carried from the Atlantic by the jet stream.
“What happens at the front is subject to a lot of uncertainty,” said Aidan McGivern, Met Office forecaster. “There could be subtle changes in the shape of the jet stream, but they are really important as it will have big implications for the weather forecast for the weekend.
“The European model shows that the weather front moves on Friday, then stagnates throughout the weekend, which would lead to a weekend of cloudy skies and showers. This pattern appears to be the most likely outcome.”
There is more confidence for next week and the 10-day Met Office weather trend shows the high pressure on Scandinavia will spread to southern parts of the UK.
Mr McGivern said: “If we believe in the European model, that means a second band of rain will barely arrive in the UK on Sunday. All of these systems will be removed by the middle of next week and then we’ll be back. to the main stream of the jet stream dominating the northwest weather.
“The high pressures over Scandinavia join with the high pressures over the Azores with a large belt of high pressures which will bring stable weather to much of the UK, resulting in hot sunny spells and haze and fog overnight.
“There will be a north / west south / east split next week, but for many places it looks like the good September weather will continue.”
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The Met Office’s long-term forecast for Monday, September 20 through Wednesday, September 29, indicates that it will “start hot” for many next week.
He adds: “The high pressure rises from the south on Tuesday, providing largely satisfactory conditions, albeit with a risk of isolated downpours.
“In the rest of September, a north-west to south-east split develops: the north-west will experience the most unstable conditions and epidemics of rain, sometimes heavy, with strong winds and gales coastal. Southeast will see drier and sunnier weather. Upper average temperatures to start the period. “
An Indian summer is a name often used to describe a period of warm, calm weather that occurs in the fall. Heat waves during the fall months are not uncommon.
Currently, the hottest UK temperatures recorded in October and November are 29.9 ° C on October 1, 2011 in Gravesend, Kent, and 22.4 ° C on November 1, 2015 in Trawsgoed, Ceredigion.
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